Appendix E — Dependency Table and Scenario Planning

This appendix maps all 51 chapters to historical era, difficulty, prerequisites, and unlocks, then replaces the former universal rebuild schedule with scenario-dependent planning bands. These bands are not forecasts or critical-path dates.

E.1 Chapter Dependency Table

Chapters 1–47 form the core manual. Chapters 48–51 are an optional defense annex and are excluded from the core planning graph.

E.2 Scenario-Dependent Planning Model

A calendar is not a dependency analysis. The same technology can take one generation or several depending on population, resources, institutions, education, finance, war, famine, climate, and whether the knowledge survives. The former single “500-year” estimate assumed a large starting population and competent governance while claiming no inherited industry—conditions that already contain major social capital.

This edition therefore provides scenario bands, exit evidence, and bottleneck categories rather than universal dates.

E.2.1 Planning inputs

Every schedule must state:

• starting population and age structure;
• local food, water, fuel, ore, timber, minerals, and energy resources;
• surviving literate, technical, medical, and organisational capacity;
• settlement pattern, transport geography, and climate;
• finance, property, dispute-resolution, and record systems;
• ability to enforce safety and environmental limits;
• access to technical books, test equipment, calibration, and replacement parts;
• inherited assets and their hazards (salvageable metal, machines, seeds, medicines) and which easy resources are already depleted (Appendix D §D.6);
• strategic reserves and recovery plans for crop, tool, medicine, and energy failure;
• external conflict, migration, trade, and epidemic risk.

E.2.2 Bottleneck categories

E.2.3 Gate record

At each capability gate, record:

1. current output and uncertainty;
2. next acceptance test;
3. hard prerequisite;
4. named responsible organisation;
5. workforce and competence requirement;
6. material and energy budget;
7. maintenance interval;
8. failure and recovery plan;
9. independent review date;
10. scenario assumptions that would invalidate the plan.

E.2.4 What can still be estimated responsibly

A project planner may estimate duration for a specific scenario using:

• demonstrated historical build rates;
• current workforce and equipment;
• learning curves with confidence ranges;
• resource and logistics throughput;
• explicit failure and restart assumptions;
• sensitivity to famine, war, epidemic, and migration.

The result should be a range with scenarios, not a single date. A useful model answers: “Under these assumptions, which capability is the next binding constraint, and what evidence would change the answer?” It does not convert incomplete knowledge into a universal timetable.

E.3 Planning Record Template